Important Note
Tech Narratives was a subscription website, which offered expert commentary on the day's top tech news from Jan Dawson, along with various other features, for $10/month. As of Monday October 16, 2017, it will no longer be updated. An archive of past content will remain available for the time being. I've written more about this change in the post immediately below, and also here.
Apple and Samsung Missed Holiday Smartphone Sales Opportunities, Say Analysts – WSJ (Dec 29, 2016)
Much of this piece piggybacks off the Flurry data I linked to earlier, but there are some additional comments from an NPD analyst which form the basis of the headline. The point here is that Samsung did suffer from the Note7 recall, but not nearly as much as it might have, because most buyers stuck with Galaxy phones rather than switching to iPhone. This reinforces the point that Apple and Samsung (in that order) have the highest smartphone loyalty rates by far, which has certainly helped Samsung this year.
via Apple and Samsung Missed Holiday Smartphone Sales Opportunities, Say Analysts – WSJ
Music streaming hailed as industry’s saviour as labels enjoy profit surge | Technology | The Guardian (Dec 29, 2016)
The headline is right on here – streaming has been a boon for the music industry, arguably the second time the tech industry (and Apple in particular) has come to its rescue. But it doesn’t go far enough – it’s paid streaming that’s saving the industry, while the best that can be said for ad-supported streaming is that it provides a useful funnel for the services that really drive revenue. That tension between paid and free streaming and their respective economics is a key one to watch in the music industry over the next couple of years.
Snap’s IPO Roadshow Message: We’re the Next Facebook, Not the Next Twitter – WSJ (Dec 29, 2016)
One of the most interesting questions Snap has to answer as it approaches a possible IPO is which company will serve as a better benchmark for its potential – Twitter or Facebook. Part of making the pitch for the latter is demonstrating that Snap is more than just a messaging app, which means focusing on its content offerings and partnerships and the potential ad revenue they might drive. Snap’s recent rebranding and launch of Spectacles are all part of a significant evolution of the company and its identity.
via Snap’s IPO Roadshow Message: We’re the Next Facebook, Not the Next Twitter – WSJ
The Verge 2016 tech report card: Apple – The Verge (Dec 29, 2016)
I’ve seen lots of this sort of thing as we approach the end of the year – quite a number of Apple observers seem to see 2016 as an off year for the company. And yet so much depends on how you few key innovations – yes, the Watch changed relatively little, but those features will please runners, swimmers and wheelchair users, and the price drops that accompanied them created new markets. The same can be said for many of the other changes. Apple news continues to be something of a Rohrschach test for observers.
via The Verge 2016 tech report card: Apple – The Verge
Not Everyone Wants to Shop on Amazon – WSJ (Dec 29, 2016)
Though the thrust of this piece is that there are lots of people who don’t shop on Amazon, for a host of interesting reasons, the flip side is that 83% of shoppers do use the site at least annually, while over half use it at least monthly. That’s an amazing reach for a single retailer, and Prime of course is intended to drive people from occasional to regular use. That 17% holdout rate is down from the high 20s just five years ago.
via Not Everyone Wants to Shop on Amazon – WSJ
How China Built ‘iPhone City’ With Billions in Perks for Apple’s Partner – The New York Times (Dec 29, 2016)
The partner here is Foxconn, Apple’s largest manufacturing partner, and this is an in-depth story based on lots of leaked documents. There’s lots that’s interesting here, but the reason it’s relevant is the prospect of both pressure from the Trump administration to bring manufacturing home, and the potential for a US-China trade war. Apple and Foxconn would certainly be in the crosshairs under both scenarios.
via How China Built ‘iPhone City’ With Billions in Perks for Apple’s Partner – The New York Times
The Verge 2016 tech report card: Microsoft – The Verge (Dec 29, 2016)
This is a good summary of Microsoft’s 2016, which was the year in which a significant turnaround or even a comeback seemed to become plausible. The company made some big advances in key areas, although there was no real advance in first-party tablets or laptops, and it all but killed off its Lumia smartphone business. There’s lots of potential here, but we’ll see in 2017 both whether Microsoft can really turn around its consumer business, and whether it can make its hardware business grow again.
via The Verge 2016 tech report card: Microsoft – The Verge
Canvas — Project Alloy Executive Summary (Dec 28, 2016)
This seems like an admirable effort aimed at increasing diversity in the tech industry by sponsoring people from underrepresented backgrounds to attend conferences. Nice to see someone come up with a logical and realistic solution, and one that allows those already in the industry to put their money where their mouths are.
via Canvas — Project Alloy Executive Summary
Check out live 360 video on Twitter | Twitter Blogs (Dec 28, 2016)
360 video has been mostly the province of Facebook when it comes to social networks, but Twitter (and Periscope) is now getting in on the action too. It obviously lends itself well to VR consumption too, though the focus for now is consumption through traditional channels. At a time when the things I feel Twitter most needs to do remain undone, it nonetheless keeps releasing new features, especially ones focused on live and video. I’m not sure how much this will move the needle as far as monetization or user growth, however.
via Check out live 360 video on Twitter | Twitter Blogs
Twitter Embraces Its Role As A Media Company – BuzzFeed News (Dec 28, 2016)
Facebook has notoriously struggled with its identity, resisting until very recently the temptation to call itself a media company, and with good reason – media companies command far lower valuations than tech ones. But Twitter seems to be embracing its future as a media player, with a focus on news (or “live”) and video. This piece cites several new hires the company is planning to make as evidence of this shift in strategy and perhaps identity.
via Twitter Embraces Its Role As A Media Company – BuzzFeed News
Big Growth in Tiny Businesses – WSJ (Dec 28, 2016)
Online retail is creating opportunities for new kinds of businesses – very small ones, often with a single employee who’s also the owner, across all kinds of fields, including food, manufacturing, and chemicals (including soap and perfume).
via Big Growth in Tiny Businesses – WSJ
IAB: Digital Advertising Revenue Breaks Record In Q3 | Digital – AdAge (Dec 28, 2016)
Great summary of US digital and mobile ad spending in the first three quarters of 2016. Overall spending is way up, driven by mobile, while search advertising is mostly shifting from desktop to mobile rather than growing, and video is the only desktop segment that’s growing. However, as we’ve seen from eMarketer and other estimates, a great majority of the total growth is going to two companies – Google and Facebook – so though this all sounds like good news for the broader industry, others largely have to fight over the crumbs that fall from the table.
via IAB: Digital Advertising Revenue Breaks Record In Q3 | Digital – AdAge
These three hot e-commerce startups could have surprise IPOs in 2017 – Recode (Dec 28, 2016)
The e-commerce space has been dominated by news of failures by small and medium-sized startups over the past year, but there are others which are quietly finding some success, and this article cites three that might even IPO in 2017. Of course, any company in this space is also a potential acquisition target for Amazon (or Walmart, Target, or other traditional retailers). But it’s good to know that others can still succeed in the market over which Amazon casts such a large shadow.
via These three hot e-commerce startups could have surprise IPOs in 2017 – Recode
New Data Reveals Uber’s Economic Impact in France – Uber Under the Hood – Medium (Dec 28, 2016)
Part of Uber’s PR push to counter the narrative that’s developed about its antipathy towards regulation is this kind of stuff, designed to showcase the positive impact Uber has on local economies. This Uber blog post cites a Boston Consulting Group study, and highlights the positive contribution made by Uber and other transportation platforms. Apple has successfully used a similar strategy – citing app developer jobs, for example – in arguing for its own positive economic impact.
via New Data Reveals Uber’s Economic Impact in France – Uber Under the Hood – Medium
Here are all the times Facebook tried to stomp out Snapchat in 2016 – Recode (Dec 28, 2016)
Great summary of the history of the Facebook Copying Snapchat narrative over the past few months. The interesting evolution during that time has been a shift in focus from trying to recreate new apps to mimic Snapchat in part or entirely to mostly using Instagram to borrow features.
via Here are all the times Facebook tried to stomp out Snapchat in 2016 – Recode
Facebook’s Oculus has acquired an eye-tracking startup called The Eye Tribe – Recode (Dec 28, 2016)
Further confirmation that Facebook and its Oculus subsidiary are serious about advancing their VR technology. VR is finally starting to hit the mainstream, but there are still lots of areas where the technology can improve.
via Facebook’s Oculus has acquired an eye-tracking startup called The Eye Tribe – Recode
Why Google Might Sell Its Fiber Business — The Information (Dec 28, 2016)
Alphabet has been tightening its belt as regards the Other Bets ever since Ruth Porat came onboard as CFO. Fiber has already been pared back and its expansion plans put on hold, but this article suggests it will be spun or sold off entirely, which seems entirely plausible. There’s never been much synergy between Fiber and the rest of Google/Alphabet, and it’s arguably served its purpose.
via Why Google Might Sell Its Fiber Business — The Information
South Korea slaps Qualcomm with record-setting $850M fine – Ars Technica (Dec 28, 2016)
Following action in China in early 2015, Korea initiated similar action against Qualcomm in late 2016, with similar allegations about anticompetitive practices with regard to patent licensing. The Chinese action was easily (perhaps too easily) dismissed a being part of a Chinese government crackdown on US companies, but similar action in Korea is slightly less so, and of course subsequent action by the US FTC has no similar explanation. Yes, Samsung and LG are two of Qualcomm’s biggest customers, and so there may have been an element of protectionism in Korea too, but this was the first real sign of fire behind the smoke.
via Ars Technica
Lessons From Fitbit’s Troubled Revenue Multiple – Mattermark (Dec 28, 2016)
The concluding line of Alex’s piece is “hardware is hard”, and that’s certainly becoming something of a narrative in its own right. But this is also a story about increasing market skepticism about wearables companies, and their potential to grow and generate profits. Fitbit has been the exception as an independent wearables-focused vendor, but I and others have questions about its ability to sustain its growth and profitability going forward.
via Lessons From Fitbit’s Troubled Revenue Multiple – Mattermark
Reversing Course, Amazon Testing Google Product Listing Ads, May Be Ramping Up Efforts | Merkle (Dec 28, 2016)
This is just third-party observation in the wild at this point, so it should be taken with a pinch of salt, but this would be a big win for Google and conversely a big concession for Amazon, which has stayed out of Google’s shopping search since it became a paid placement product. Third party data we linked to in September suggested 55% of online shopping searches start on Amazon, but 28% still start on search engines like Google. Amazon is here attempting to divert some of that 28% back to its site.
via Reversing Course, Amazon Testing Google Product Listing Ads, May Be Ramping Up Efforts | Merkle