Google Settles With Italy for $320m Over Unpaid Taxes (May 4, 2017)
★ AT&T Reports TV and Wireless Subscriber Losses in Q1 2017 (Apr 25, 2017)
AT&T reported Q1 2017 results today, and it looks to have been a grim quarter across its consumer business. It reported net adds of 2.1 million, but in reality saw a drop of 641k subscribers in the quarter due to the disconnection of 2.3 million subscribers as it decommissioned its 2G network and a removal of 400k reseller subs due to an unspecified “true-up” of its reporting. On the TV side, AT&T lost a total of 233k subscribers, a worsening of the past trend, which had been close to zero on a net basis between significant U-verse losses and good DirecTV gains. Those losses mostly came from those customers taking standalone DirecTV service without a bundle, and that’s worrying because although AT&T has been offering wireless-TV bundles since the merger closed, it can’t offer a national broadband-TV bundle, which is the one consumers mostly care about. That, in turn, is going to make it hard to turn that trend around, especially given that AT&T is already offering strong incentives for customers to bundle TV with wireless, including a $25 bill discount for TV and free HBO.
On the wireless side, connected devices (such as connected cars) continue to be the salvation for its overall subscriber numbers, because its postpaid business actually shrank in the quarter for the first time ever (as did Verizon’s), while its reseller numbers dropped like T-Mobile’s (possibly because big MVNO Tracfone disconnected 1.3m subs in the quarter). The re-introduction of unlimited plans was, however, a hit, with around 4.4 million new subscribers since the change, a more than 50% increase in that base. However, AT&T characterized its position now as being more or less the same competitively as at the beginning of the quarter, suggesting it doesn’t see any kind of permanent lift from the change. Financially, things overall were a little better – AT&T has been holding costs down in wireless which has allowed its margins to expand despite revenue challenges, and although equipment revenue is dropping rapidly due to much lower phone upgrade rates, that’s effectively zero-margin revenue anyway.
LeEco Suspends Shares on Chinese Exchange Before Wednesday Restructuring Announcement (Apr 17, 2017)
Uber’s financial results frequently leak through various online publications, and this year it seems to have decided to shortcut the process and speak directly to Bloomberg, which of course also gives it the opportunity to present the most flattering version of the numbers along with commentary. The highlights are that Uber grew revenues significantly year on year, but losses also grew. Uber emphasized that revenue growth outpaced growth in losses, but of course what you really want is for revenue growth to outpace cost growth, because that’s how you eventually become profitable, but that isn’t happening yet. Uber’s revenue growth was also helped by the different accounting treatment of UberPool rides (for which Uber records the full revenue as net revenue) versus other rides (for which it only reports its cut) which has the effect of making losses seem smaller in comparison to revenues, but is really just financial jiggery pokery. The headline financials shared with Bloomberg also exclude both the Chinese business, which was hugely loss-making for Uber, and various other items including car purchases (presumably as part of its autonomous technology testing operation). So these really are a pretty sanitized set of results, which nonetheless show significant and even growing losses.
Here’s our second LeEco story of the day, both fairly momentous (the first was news that the Vizio acquisition had fallen through). This one fits with the recent narrative of financial troubles at LeEco, and if the numbers in here are right, then things are indeed going very badly, with revenue of $15 million versus a target of $100 million in 2016 and layoffs of around a third of the US employee base planned. I’ve been skeptical of LeEco’s strategy from the beginning, and have only become more so as we’ve seen that strategy play out in the shadow of the financial troubles of the parent company. More broadly, LeEco’s struggles in the US demonstrate how different the US and China still are as markets, and how hard it is for companies to go either way across that chasm. No big Chinese company has yet been successful in the US, and Apple remains something of an exception as a US company that has done well long-term in China. LeEco was up against this from the beginning and its focus on an ecosystem play was always going to struggle without a big known brand like Vizio at the center of it here in the US.
Samsung sees bounce in Q1 ahead of Galaxy S8 – CNET (Apr 6, 2017)
The first part of this article suggests that the strong Q1 results Samsung is forecasting would be a bounce back from the Note7 debacle, but the reality is that Samsung already saw that bounce back in Q4 2016, which was its best-ever quarter for operating margins and flat revenues year on year despite the hole left by the Note7. This quarter would improve margins still further while also potentially maintaining flat or slightly increased revenues year on year again. What Samsung doesn’t tell us in these preliminary results notices is where the money is coming from, but last quarter semiconductors made a big contribution, and it’s likely that this division is the big hero again this quarter. It’s by far the company’s most profitable division, and although it contributes less revenue than the mobile segment, its contribution has been growing there too. So although the Note7 rebound narrative is attractive, this is really about components not phones, as the phone business continues to be roughly stagnant rather than thriving.
This is yet another sign that LeEco may be struggling financially because of an overly aggressive expansion into the US and into new product categories over the past year. It’s apparently struggling to meet payroll on time, and has also been struggling to close its acquisition of Vizio. It’s still somewhat baffling to me that LeEco pursued such an aggressive strategy in the US, because it’s meant not only stretching its tight finances even tighter, but also launching with quite a different set of assets from those that made it successful in China.
GoPro today both reiterated its revenue guidance for Q1 and announced fairly significant cost cuts including layoffs in an attempt to get back to profitability after five straight quarters of net losses. It will eliminate 270 current and planned positions, which equate to roughly 17% of its headcount at the end of Q4, and says full year operating expenses will be $582 million, which compares to $835 million in 2016 and $618 million in 2015, so a fairly significant cut. The fact that it still expects to hit the same revenue numbers makes me wonder what those people were doing that they can be so easily dismissed without impacting revenue growth. Operating expenses are weighted towards R&D and sales and marketing costs, so the cuts will likely hit hardest in those two areas, one of which would likely impact longer term sales while the other would be likelier to hit short term sales. So color me skeptical that GoPro can make these cuts and still hit its revenue numbers for the year, although investors clearly feel differently (the stock is up over 8% after hours).
Lenovo Reports December 2016 Quarter Results (Feb 16, 2017)
Lenovo continues to be a business in three quite different parts: in PCs, it’s the world’s largest vendor, grew slightly year on year, and is profitable; while in data centers and mobile it’s shrinking fast and unprofitable. Lenovo’s mobile business in China has collapsed by about 90% in the past two years, to the point that Lenovo didn’t even report China shipments at all this quarter, while it’s likely held up a little better outside of China, though it’s very focused on low-end shipments. Lenovo basically focused its whole earnings presentation on the PC business, with much less detail than usual on mobile, and the usual short shrift for data centers. This was a business that looked really good a couple of years ago, but looks much less so now. Another cautionary tale about the challenge of today’s smartphone market, especially for Android vendors, but also about the dangers of expanding too quickly through acquisitions.
HTC has another tough quarter, with revenue down 13% YOY, but smaller losses – TechCrunch (Feb 15, 2017)
I don’t typically track HTC’s financials that closely, because they’re so small (just $700 million in revenue last quarter) and such a minor player at this point, but it’s worth checking in from time to time, especially as HTC expands beyond its traditional smartphone business into VR and ODM manufacturing for Google. Interestingly, there’s very little sign of any meaningful bump in revenues or profits from either of these initiatives, which either means that their contribution is tiny or that the traditional smartphone business is declining even faster than in the past. Revenue was down 13% year on year, and the company has had negative operating margins for seven straight quarters and most of the last three years. On the Q3 earnings call, HTC said that it was near breakeven on its smartphone business, and blamed the VR business for the overall losses. It also refuses to talk about the Pixel business at all on earnings calls, citing the lack of public disclosure by Google (which is odd because Google has confirmed it). Regardless, it’s worth noting that the company’s gross margin is just barely in the double digits, which obviously doesn’t leave much room for marketing and other corporate costs. HTC is one of a number of what were major Android vendors a few years back which have faded considerably, and unlike Sony it doesn’t yet seem to have figured out how to make the business work at its new smaller scale.
Apple CFO says capital returns will rise if cash repatriation rate is lowered – Financial Times (Feb 14, 2017)
Apple CFO Luca Maestri spoke at the Goldman Sachs conference today, and although the audio quality of the broadcast was miserable, the FT seems to have been able to pick out the best bits. Two specific ones are detailed here – firstly, Apple still hopes to be able to repatriate more cash soon following a change in US tax policy, and secondly, it remains skeptical about more manufacturing in the US. On the former point, it sounds like Apple’s main focus for the repatriated cash would be increasing returns to shareholders and not big acquisitions – that’s not altogether surprising because it’s in keeping with past strategy, but there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the returns to shareholders don’t seem to be having the desired effect on the share price. The US manufacturing comments also aren’t surprising – everything we’ve heard on this point as it regards Apple specifically has come from others – Donald Trump, Foxconn, and so on – not Apple itself. And certainly manufacturing any kind of high scale product like iPhones in the US would be almost impossible given the lack of appropriate infrastructure here.
via Financial Times
T-Mobile US Reports Q4 2016 Results (Feb 14, 2017)
T-Mobile reported its Q4 results this morning – the last of the major US wireless carriers to do so – and as usual it’s beating all the others handily on postpaid phone subscriber growth and making decent progress on growing its margins. It added several times as many postpaid phone subscribers as any other carrier, but in other categories like tablets and “connected devices” (think cars, machine to machine, connected utility meters) others were ahead, with AT&T leading the market in both those categories. T-Mobile says it has seen much higher porting ratios (the ratio of subscribers won versus lost from a particular carrier) against Verizon this quarter, which would help explain the latter’s rapid shift in stance on unlimited plans. T-Mobile continues to be quite a bit smaller than the big two, and that’s a big driver of its lower margins, but the fact that it’s willing to take those lower margins enables it to win subscribers with aggressive pricing, especially since its network performance and coverage is constantly improving. I continue to be skeptical that T-Mobile’s strategy is sustainable over the long haul – it’s very focused on phones, which aren’t growing much anymore, and hasn’t invested as its two largest competitors have in newer growth categories, but for now it continues to capture lots of attention and make the other carriers look bad.
via T-Mobile (PDF release)
I’m tying this story to the Apple is Doomed narrative because it would be easy to see today’s news as evidence that investors don’t think Apple is doomed at all. But if you take that approach, you’d also have to say that investors did think Apple was doomed nine months ago when its stock price fell to two thirds its level at today’s close, when in reality that movement tells you a lot more about investor skittishness than Apple’s actual prospects. Apple continues to be massively undervalued relative to major peers, and that reflects an ongoing skepticism that Apple’s ability to sell massive numbers of devices is about more than just smoke and mirrors. Apple is the exception in the consumer electronics market, which is otherwise characterized by low single digit margins at best, and I always suspect that some financial analysts think this is the result of some kind of sleight of hand that will eventually be exposed – there’s really no other explanation for the ongoing under-valuation. The massive swings in Apple’s stock price over time – its 12 month range goes from $89 to the $133 it hit today – are much more about investor skittishness than underlying performance. Certainly there was nothing in Apple’s last earnings that should have triggered such a significant change in sentiment – they were decent results, but guidance for the next quarter wasn’t great, and as usual there was nothing concrete about the company’s longer-term trajectory from management. I continue to be very bullish on Apple in general, but I certainly don’t base that conclusion on what’s going on with the company’s stock price.
Huawei Sold More Phones but at Less Profit — The Information (Feb 10, 2017)
Huawei was the number three smartphone maker I said was one of several missing from that recent analysis of who captured the profits in the global market, and it does actually make a decent profit (relatively speaking) on its hardware. According to the Information, the relevant business unit made $2 billion in profit in 2016, or a margin of 7.7%, which may not sound like a lot but given that almost all consumer electronics businesses generate low single digit or negative margins, it’s not bad. It was down from 11% in 2015, but Huawei invested enormously in marketing in 2016 and saw 30% smartphone growth as a result. It can probably ramp down that spending in 2017 while still seeing decent growth, which should help it get closer to its $4 billion profit goal for the year. Huawei continues to be a very interesting company to watch in the smartphone market, and is one of only a handful of companies which have managed to drive a decent profit from making Android smartphones.
via The Information
It’s not just Google — Snap has a $1 billion cloud services deal with Amazon, too – Recode (Feb 9, 2017)
Snap has filed an amended version of its S-1 IPO filing, and it’s added a few extra tidbits here and there. This Recode piece picks up on the most notable: earlier this month, Snap signed a deal with Amazon’s AWS which is worth at least $1 billion over 5 years, for redundant infrastructure (i.e. as a backup to its primary reliance on Google’s Cloud). Unlike the Google commitment, which requires a steady minimum of $400m spent per year, this deal ramps from a minimum of $50m in 2017 to $350m in 2021 (which is probably about how much Snap spent with Google in 2016). That’s a rapid growth rate, and implies that this level of redundancy may be new for Snap, perhaps triggered by investor concerns over its sole reliance on Google. Combined, that’s a minimum $3 billion commitment for just these two infrastructure companies over the next five years, which is about seven times its 2016 revenue – that’s a big commitment and increases the risks associated with slowing growth. Also new in the S-1/A are a couple of paragraphs intended to reassure investors about the multi-class stock structure and the disclosure they will receive with their Class A shares, as well as some expansion on its slowing user growth and the lower engagement levels its Rest of World users exhibit relative to its US and European users.
Twitter’s results this morning were a great illustration of the quandary Twitter presents: on the one hand, it’s never been more important or relevant in the world, and on the other it just doesn’t seem to be able to turn that into meaningful user growth, revenue growth, or profitability. Revenues were actually down year on year, especially in the US, while losses also increased due partly to restructuring costs. Monthly user growth was anemic again, while daily user growth accelerated, though Twitter bafflingly continues to refuse to provide actual DAU numbers (it’s likely that they’re well under half of its MAU number of 319 million, so around 150 million). Meanwhile, Twitter is still talking about exactly the same shortcomings in its ad product around measurement, targeting, delivering ROI, and creative capabilities that it’s been talking about for ages now. And it sounds like it’s rethinking a number of its direct response ad formats and may kill off some that are actually delivering revenue because they’re too resource-intensive. At this point in Twitter’s history (almost 11 years in) and Jack Dorsey’s second tenure (a year and a half in), the company really shouldn’t be about to undergo yet another major reset in its strategy. In the meantime, Twitter management is asking investors to take it on trust that they can convince advertisers that the underlying growth in DAUs and impressions means they should spend more money on Twitter. We’re certainly due for at least one more really shaky quarter, but there’s a good chance we won’t see meaningful financial progress in 2017 at all. I’ve done a slightly more in-depth take at Beyond Devices here.
via Twitter (PDF)
The long-awaited Snap S-1 was released this afternoon just as Amazon and GoPro were reporting earnings, so it’s been busy. I tweeted some of the most interesting tidbits I saw at first glance earlier, but will do a deep dive for a blog post at some point in the next 24 hours too. Some highlights: the company is growing very rapidly in revenue terms, as it ramps ARPU fast, but still makes 88% of its revenue from North America, even though a majority of users are overseas. User growth has been decent, ending 2016 with 160 million daily active user (its only user base measure), but has slowed in recent months, which Snap blames on both a poor Android update and competitive moves (such as Instagram Stories, though it’s not mentioned by name). It loses money in massive amounts – there’s no clear path to profitability here any time soon, even with rapid growth, as cost of revenues alone outweigh revenues. Engagement is mentioned 103 times in the filing, as was widely anticipated, but the only measure mentioned beyond DAUs is time spent, and it’s not provided on a consistent basis. That’s a worrying sign at a time when Snap needs to be demonstrating that its users are not just using the app daily but spending more time in it. Other tidbits: Apple is mentioned in a list of competitors, and Google is Snap’s cloud provider, with a massive commitment to future spending with the company. This blog post goes into a lot more depth on the filing.