Narrative: Apple is Doomed

Each narrative page (like this) has a page describing and evaluating the narrative, followed by all the posts on the site tagged with that narrative. Scroll down beyond the introduction to see the posts.

Each post below is tagged with
  • Company/Division names
  • Topics
  • and
  • Narratives
  • as appropriate.
    GarageBand and Logic Pro X Music Apps Get Major Updates – Apple Press Release (Jan 18, 2017)

    One of the criticisms of Apple which has become loudest lately is that it is increasingly ignoring the professional creatives who use Macs to do their work, and I’ve seen this not just in relation to Apple’s Mac lineup but also a supposed neglect of Apple’s pro apps. However, at the MacBook Pro launch event a couple of months ago, Apple provided a big update to Final Cut Pro, which I’m told by video pros is a big deal, and now we’re seeing a big update to another of Apple’s big creative apps, Logic Pro. While I think some of the Mac criticism is reasonable (though I still think we’ll see an update on the desktops soon), this stuff about the pro apps clearly isn’t true – Apple is still investing in a big way here.

    via Apple – GarageBand and Logic Pro X Music Apps Get Major Updates

    Chris Lattner Says Opportunity to Work on Tesla’s Ambitious Self-Driving Efforts Was ‘Irresistible’ – Mac Rumors (Jan 17, 2017)

    Chris Lattner is the Apple engineer and creator of the Swift programming language who recently left the company to go work at Tesla. His departure was seen as a sign of unhappiness at Apple and therefore played into the overall narrative about Apple’s troubles. However, Chris Lattner has now spoken about his actual reasons for wanting to move to a new role, and as I suspected it was more about wanting a new challenge than any negative feelings towards Apple per se. Given how excited Lattner appears to be about autonomous driving in particular, we might speculate that Apple’s more exploratory investment in that area was less attractive than Tesla’s current rollout of the technology. And it’s also possible that Apple was keener to hire someone with more specific expertise and history in that area than Lattner offered – Apple tends to hire what it considers the best possible person for a new role rather than moving someone internally.

    via Chris Lattner Says Opportunity to Work on Tesla’s Ambitious Self-Driving Efforts Was ‘Irresistible’ – Mac Rumors

    App downloads up 15 percent in 2016, revenue up 40 percent thanks to China – TechCrunch (Jan 17, 2017)

    Two things are worth noting about all the data presented here: firstly, apps are still growing massively, putting the lie to the idea that native mobile apps are somehow dead, to be replaced by some combination of better web apps, bots, or something else. The number of apps being downloaded is growing rapidly each year rather than stagnating or slowing down. The second point is that there continues to be a massive disparity between usage and spending when it comes to Android and iOS. See the first and fourth charts in this article – the first shows massively more Android apps downloaded than iOS apps, while the fourth shows double the spending on those iOS apps relative to Android. It continues to be far more profitable for developers to make apps for iOS, even with a smaller user base and far fewer apps downloaded. That, in turn, seems likely to reinforce the pattern that the vasty majority of big new apps get launched on iOS first, and Android second (if ever). That continues to be one of Apple’s big ecosystem advantages.

    via App downloads up 15 percent in 2016, revenue up 40 percent thanks to China | TechCrunch

    Apple in 2016: The Six Colors report card – Six Colors (Jan 12, 2017)

    This Six Colors survey of Apple observers is an interesting exercise, because although this is a crowd that’s mostly made up of Apple fans, most are unafraid of speaking their minds and being critical where warranted (a complete listing along with a link to their verbatim comments is at the bottom of the post). The Mac was the area where Apple was hardest hit in this report card, understandably given the mounting frustration over the lack of new desktops, but I found the criticism on the Apple TV side less warranted – it got decent software upgrades, and the few gaps in video content have been filled, though admittedly it’s ever clearer that it won’t be an important gaming platform. It’s well worth reading the whole thing, because it’s a mostly honest evaluation of the tough year Apple had in 2016, with quite a bit of detail from some of the people who follow the company most closely. The big question for Apple is how it balances the need to please this vocal but arguably unrepresentative audience with its massive base of mainstream users – in 2016 it clearly served the latter more than the former, and got hit hard for it.

    via Apple in 2016: The Six Colors report card – Six Colors

    The iPhone is gaining ground on Android in the U.S. – Recode (Jan 11, 2017)

    Kantar’s data is solid, so these conclusions are reliable, and they suggest a bifurcation in iPhone market share between the US and China. It’s rising in the former, and falling in the latter, which is actually to be expected. The iPhone’s share of the market has generally fallen over time in most markets as they expand and more new buyers at the lower end of the market buy cheaper phones. But as markets mature and begin to saturate, there’s potential for the iPhone to gain share, because share is driven by switching and not by new low end users coming into the market, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now in the US. The key for iPhone sales growth (not share growth, which is not itself important to Apple) going forward is to drive switching behavior, hence Tim Cook’s frequent references to record Android switching rates on earnings calls.

    via The iPhone is gaining ground on Android in the U.S. – Recode

    Apple AirPods Topped Wireless Headphone Sales Charts for the Holidays – Fortune (Jan 11, 2017)

    There’s lots of interesting data in here about both AirPod and Beats sales over the past twelve months and the holiday period. Bluetooth headphones in general have skyrocketed in terms of share, something that was happening already but was likely accelerated by the removal of the headphone jack on the new iPhone. All of the new W1-based products are expensive, and it’s not clear from the report what share of Beats sales were these high end ones rather than the cheaper ones Beats offers. But it’s a sign that at least some people are embracing the iPhone’s wireless audio future.

    via Apple AirPods Topped Wireless Headphone Sales Charts for the Holidays | Fortune.com

    Creator of Apple’s Swift Leaves for Tesla – Tesla PR (Jan 10, 2017)

    This is one of those bits of news that’s almost impossible not to see as symbolic – a top software engineer leaves an Apple that has appeared to be struggling for Tesla, the car tech startup that can do no wrong. Both of those, of course, are exaggerations and Apple has poached many employees from Tesla over the last couple of years too. But the fact that Chris Lattner, an extremely well respected software engineer, chose to leave at the very least says something is currently more attractive for him at Tesla than at Apple. If Apple’s car efforts are in as much flux as they’ve recently seemed, and if cars are what Lattner wants to work on next, then that’s not all that surprising. And it’s impossible to know at this point whether there’s something more to it than that. (Update, Jan. 11 2017: see also this news)

    via Welcome Chris Lattner | Tesla

    MacBook Pro Ratings Changed – Consumer Reports (Jan 10, 2017)

    I changed the headline on this piece, which is a bit of amazing spin. Following serious pushback from Apple on its MacBook Pro battery tests, Consumer Reports provided more information to Apple on its testing process, and it emerged that it had turned off the cache (which consumers never would) and this in turn triggered an obscure bug which drained battery life. Had CR simply given Apple the opportunity to provide feedback on the testing process, this whole thing could have ended a lot earlier and without the unjust criticism. To the extent that anyone saw this story as evidence of slipping standards at Apple, that should now be laid to rest. For what it’s worth, I’ve seen excellent battery life on the MBP the last two weeks while traveling, especially with the screen dimmed somewhat. (See also Apple’s full statement.)

    via MacBook Pro Ratings Changed – Consumer Reports

    Apple and Zeiss Working Together on AR Glasses – Robert Scoble (Jan 9, 2017)

    Robert Scoble is an odd source – not strictly a reporter, and one with a very mixed track record when it comes to this kind of thing. So take it with a pinch of salt, but this is an interesting report given that Apple does seem to be very interested in AR. The timing is interesting here too – Scoble says the glasses might launch this year, which would be a big new product for Apple when it could really use one to reassure the faithful.

    via Robert Scoble – Exclusive news: Apple and Zeiss working together…

    Why Apple’s Critics Are Right This Time – WSJ (Jan 8, 2017)

    This piece rehashes all the recent stuff that’s been said about Apple without really adding anything new. AI is mentioned a few times, and that’s the ostensible focus, though it’s not clear that AI is really what’s meant – it’s mostly about voice assistants specifically, and this article repeats a lot of the prevailing narrative about Amazon being ahead in voice, a situation that’s significantly more nuanced in reality. But in some ways the key point here is that we’re starting to see a steady drumbeat of this kind of thing lately, and that’s notable in its own right.

    via Why Apple’s Critics Are Right This Time – WSJ