Narrative: Apple is Doomed
Each narrative page (like this) has a page describing and evaluating the narrative, followed by all the posts on the site tagged with that narrative. Scroll down beyond the introduction to see the posts.
KGI: 3 new iPads to debut next quarter will slow decline in sales, 10-10.5 inch model wildcard | 9to5Mac (Jan 8, 2017)
The iPad had a better year in 2016, but shipments were still down 10-15% year on year, while revenues were down by a few percentage points. I believe revenues will likely level off sooner than shipments due to higher ASPs driven by the Pro models, while shipments will level off over the next year or two as well. New iPads which provide more compelling reasons to upgrade will help with that, but a lot of sales will be driven by replacements among the massive installed base of older models. The new models reported by KGI are intriguing – at least one new size will make an appearance, and it appears this will be the high-end version of the 9.7″ model, which will remain at a lower price point.
Apple Watch Sales Were Way Up Over The Holidays, Slice Data Shows | Fast Company (Jan 6, 2017)
Slice is one of those data sources you can’t completely trust – because the data is about online purchases only, it’s partial, and it’s also only ever directional. But this data suggests decent growth year over year for the Watch, which is in line with Tim Cook’s fairly vague but positive remarks on sales recently. The Watch should have sold well over the holidays – the second generation launched shortly before with some new hardware features (and better software), the base price is now cheaper, and there were deals on several models over the holiday shopping period. We won’t, of course, get hard numbers from Apple, but there should be enough in the reported results of the Other Products category to check if this is true come the end of the month.
Apple camera lens manufacturer posts significant profit, shedding doubt on iPhone order cuts – Apple Insider (Jan 6, 2017)
This is only one data point, so take it with a pinch of salt, but it suggests healthy sales for the new iPhones in Q4 2016, in contrast to the recent reports of manufacturing cuts by Apple at its major suppliers. We’ll know soon enough when Apple reports its results for the quarter, but I’m still expecting some decent year on year growth and a fairly bullish outlook for the March quarter.
via Apple camera lens manufacturer posts significant profit, shedding doubt on iPhone order cuts
Apple community reacts to lack of Mac Pro – Business Insider (Jan 4, 2017)
The version of this headline on BI’s site is much blunter, and the gist is that Mac fans are ticked about Apple’s lack of upgrades for the Mac Pro. Some see this as a sign of broader issues at Apple, while others see it as merely a side effect of Apple’s tendency to focus resources on a small number of products at once. I do think the Mac Pro boxed Apple into a corner somewhat – having boasted about the US manufacturing, it likely finds it difficult to back away, but I suspect it may regret some of the form factor choices – the lack of upgradeability means Apple needs to update the computer more frequently, something it hasn’t been willing to do. I think we’ll see an update in 2017, but I’m really curious as to what the new version will look like.
via Apple community reacts to lack of Mac Pro – Business Insider
A Magic Moment — Liss is More (Jan 1, 2017)
This isn’t news per se – it’s not even a normal review. But it is a personal experience someone had with an Apple product – specifically, AirPods. This is still the strongest kind of counter-evidence to the Apple is Doomed narrative – that Apple still knows how to make magical products. It’s just one user’s experience, but reviews of the AirPods have been almost universally positive, and my own experience with them reinforces this too. They’re not perfect, but they’re very good.
via A Magic Moment — Liss is More
Apple’s 2016 in review – Chuq von Rospach (Jan 1, 2017)
This piece explicitly disclaims the Apple is Doomed narrative, but it’s in line with quite a number of critical pieces over the past year from those who have generally been supporters of Apple. And it still draws broad conclusions about the state of Apple from a series of individual events that did and didn’t happen in 2016. I suspect Apple in 2016 was viewed more negatively than it might have been because there wasn’t a single big-bang new launch – it felt like mostly an incremental year. The one big exception was the AirPods, but they launched so late, and were themselves one of the examples of the problems Apple has faced, that it made little difference.
Slower-than-expected iPhone 7 sales prompt Apple to cut production by 10%, report claims (Dec 30, 2016)
There are two problems with these reports – firstly, they come out every year in some shape or form, and have a far from perfect correlation with poor sales of iPhones; and secondly, the scale of the cuts is always ambiguous – is the 10% relative to last year at the same time, a cut from Q4 to Q1, or something else? The latter would obviously be expected given the usual cyclical drop from Q4 to Q1, while the former would be entirely unexpected. But as usual this Nikkei report drove lots of “poor iPhone sales” headlines despite all that.
via Slower-than-expected iPhone 7 sales prompt Apple to cut production by 10%, report claims
The Verge 2016 tech report card: Apple – The Verge (Dec 29, 2016)
I’ve seen lots of this sort of thing as we approach the end of the year – quite a number of Apple observers seem to see 2016 as an off year for the company. And yet so much depends on how you few key innovations – yes, the Watch changed relatively little, but those features will please runners, swimmers and wheelchair users, and the price drops that accompanied them created new markets. The same can be said for many of the other changes. Apple news continues to be something of a Rohrschach test for observers.
via The Verge 2016 tech report card: Apple – The Verge
Flurry Analytics: Apple devices were most popular mobile holiday gifts – Business Insider (Dec 27, 2016)
Until Apple reports its results for the December quarter, this kind of data is the best insight we’re going to get into how its quarter has gone. The answer appears to be pretty good, at least as it relates to iPad and iPhone sales, and taken together with other data on Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods sales, it’s looking like a pretty healthy quarter overall.
via Flurry Analytics: Apple devices were most popular mobile holiday gifts – Business Insider
New MacBook Pros Fail to Earn Consumer Reports Recommendation – Consumer Reports (Dec 22, 2016)
For all the complaining about how the new MacBooks weren’t truly worthy of the Pro designation, it’s been largely a matter of opinion, and one I’ve argued doesn’t matter nearly as much as it used to. But if this is a verifiable performance issue with the new MBPs, that’s a concern – I’ve seen pretty variable battery life on my review unit. But see also this iMore piece that questions some of the findings, and this later 9to5Mac piece which follows up with some additional data.
via New MacBook Pros Fail to Earn Consumer Reports Recommendation – Consumer Reports