Narrative: Apple is Doomed
Each narrative page (like this) has a page describing and evaluating the narrative, followed by all the posts on the site tagged with that narrative. Scroll down beyond the introduction to see the posts.
LG has redesigned its 5K Mac monitor so it can handle being placed near a router – Recode (Feb 3, 2017)
This has been a bizarre story – LG somehow produced a monitor for its partnership with Apple whose performance was seriously affected by close proximity to a router, something I’m guessing isn’t uncommon in home offices around the world. This is an unfortunate side effect of Apple’s decision to cede its first party monitor role to a partner – it no longer has control over quality and performance in quite the same way. Buyers and potential buyers had already been complaining that the monitor doesn’t look nearly as nice as Apple’s own, but that there should be serious performance issues too makes it worse, especially given the high prices (before discounts) of these monitors.
via Recode
Apple is no longer the most valuable brand in the world as Google takes top spot – MarketWatch (Feb 2, 2017)
This is one of those exercises that seems almost entirely intended to garner interest for the company doing the evaluation, and indeed Brand Finance’s actual report starts by explaining how it does similar analyses for clients. As usual, the methodology is just opaque enough that we have no idea how the results are actually arrived at in detail, but it’s fairly clear that there is a financial component – in other words, it’s very likely that Apple’s drop in revenues in the past year had a big impact on its 27% “drop in brand value”. It’s ironic, then, that the report should arrive the same week as Apple announced its highest ever revenue and iPhone shipment quarter, not to mention highest Apple Watch shipments and revenue and highest Mac revenue. The short-term financial focus of the Brand Finance exercise is clearly something of a flaw in its methodology, but it’s generally worth discarding any such study entirely, unless it’s strongly rooted in customer perceptions of brands and the products they represent.
via MarketWatch
Apple Tops Samsung in the Fourth Quarter to Close Out a Roller Coaster Year for the Smartphone Market, According to IDC (Feb 2, 2017)
Pick your poison here – most of the big names have put out similar releases this week crowning Apple the victor in the December quarter for smartphone sales, narrowly pipping Samsung. This is an entirely symbolic victory, but it’s the kind of thing that often causes the more negatives around Apple to die down temporarily (which isn’t to say there haven’t still been various articles this week warning that Apple’s next phone had better be be a big deal or else). Two other things worth noting here: Apple only ever comes in at number 1 in the December quarter, when it sells massively more iPhones than in any other quarter, and so for the year as a whole Apple will always be behind Samsung. Secondly, the IDC figures and others I’ve seen seem to have used Apple’s official iPhone sell-in figure for its first fiscal quarter – there are issues with using sell-in as opposed to sell through in these contexts, but I see the logic in using an official figure rather than an estimated one. However, there’s a problem with this approach of taking Apple’s number this quarter, because Apple’s quarter actually started in the last week of September this year, giving an extra week of sales very early in the iPhone 7 cycle. Without that extra week of sales, it’s very likely Apple wouldn’t have been ahead of Samsung, but I’ve seen none of these market share numbers acknowledge that fact or adjust Apple’s number downward to account for it.
via IDC
iPhone 7, 7 Plus Grow US Installed Base – CIRP (Feb 2, 2017)
Consumer Intelligence Research Partners is often an interesting source of data, in particular on Amazon’s Prime base in the US, but also on other topics, in this case the US iPhone installed base. It suggests in this PDF press release that iPhone has a base of 132 million in the US, with the vast majority of devices in that base being models launched in the fall of 2014 or later, which puts the age of almost all of them at under 30 months. That’s striking at a time when upgrade cycles in the US have been lengthening, and Tim Cook was asked about that phenomenon on the Apple earnings call this week. The fact is that smartphone upgrade cycles have been lengthening, but the iPhone doesn’t seem to have been affected as much as other smartphones have. In part, that’s because iPhones have been the focus of both Apple’s own and carriers’ regular upgrade and leasing programs, and it’s partly the nature of the iPhone and those buying it. It’s also worth noting that the 132m figure is likely a tad high – it suggests a market share a little higher than most other sources I’ve seen. It also looks like the iPhone 7 sales cycle has kicked off faster than the 6S cycle, but more slowly than the 6 cycle, which is in line with evidence I’ve seen elsewhere.
via CIRP (PDF)
Cheaper Rivals Eat Away at Apple Sales in China – WSJ (Feb 1, 2017)
This is a story that’s been going for a while now – China’s sales in China have been down, but ironically the quarter just reported was the first in quite a while in which its revenues in China itself were actually flat, per Tim Cook’s remarks on the earnings call yesterday. In other words, in China (as opposed to the Greater China region) Apple grew in constant currency by 6% year on year, its best performance in a year. However, as with other smartphone markets around the world, as the Chinese market continues to grow, more new users will choose cheaper Android phones than iPhones as their first phones, and those who prioritize price will always choose something other than an iPhone. The reason Tim Cook always emphasizes switchers and new users is that this is where future growth will come from, even as Apple’s market share falls – new users become upgraders in the next cycle, and as the market saturates, Apple’s share tends to rise. It’s too early to know yet whether that will happen in China, but that’s what Cook is banking on, not steadily increasing market share in a market that’s far from maturity.
via WSJ
Behind Apple’s new campaign: One Night on iPhone 7 – Apple (Jan 30, 2017)
It really feels like Apple is doubling down on the iPhone as camera marketing strategy – its recent ad “Take Mine” was very effective, and it’s been working with lots of publishers and independent photographers to showcase the iPhone 7’s photo-taking skills. It looks like it did a project back in November 2016 in which it invited lots of photographers to take pictures with the iPhone 7 on the same day, and then combined these into a campaign around its “Shot on iPhone” theme. The camera is definitely one of the standout points of the new iPhone (as I said both in my main review and my subsequent mini-review of Portrait Mode), so this is a smart strategy by Apple. But other device makers are producing really compelling cameras and camera features now too, with the Pixel also majoring on its camera among other things, and producing very good results in the process. Apple can’t just focus on the camera, and that’s why you’re seeing AirPods ads and ads starring other features too – it’s always been about the complete package with the iPhone, and that’s the argument Apple is making here: this is a phenomenal camera on a phone that also does lots more besides.
via Apple
For Apple’s iPhone Sales, Size Matters – WSJ (Jan 28, 2017)
This article is a good counterpoint to another I commented on recently, which suggested a shift to older devices and therefore lower average selling prices for the iPhone last quarter. As I said with regard to that piece, I’m seeing little evidence of the trend mentioned, and in fact I’d expect a shift to larger devices to push ASPs up, if anything, This WSJ piece quotes some data to that effect, and has some good numbers around the mix between the base and Plus models and how it’s shifted over time. Apple clearly does sell older devices too, so this mix shift among the 7 variants isn’t the only factor, but I still think ASPs should be pretty healthy when Apple reports its results for last quarter.
via WSJ
Apple iPhone Price Under Pressure as Buyers Seek Cheaper Devices – Bloomberg (Jan 26, 2017)
This piece suggests falling ASPs due to iPhone buyers plumping for older models like the 6S rather than the new iPhone 7 models, but only quotes one analyst at Barclays to back up the claim. We’ll know soon enough what the ASP numbers for the December quarter look like, but they did fall this past year relative to the year earlier, in part because of the iPhone SE launch. It’s certainly also true that people are hanging onto phones longer, because they’re more capable, and that new installment plans from US carriers make the price of phones more transparent than the old subsidy model, and reduce the monthly cost once a phone is paid off. For all these reasons, I’m definitely seeing longer upgrade cycles for smartphones, but I see very little evidence that people are buying older phones new – in fact, all my conversations with carriers suggest the opposite – moving from an upfront cost to a monthly cost is driving people to higher-priced phones. In addition, the mix between the 7 and 7 Plus looks to have moved in favor of the larger device relative to earlier models, and that and interest in the jet black finish will also drive up ASPs. Color me skeptical at this point.
via Bloomberg
Dropcam’s Greg Duffy Joins Apple — The Information (Jan 25, 2017)
Amid the recent drumbeat of departures from Apple (I’ve covered Chris Lattner, but there was also Matt Casebolt who also went to Tesla, Yoky Matsuoka who went back to Nest after just a few months at Apple, Musa Tariq who went to Ford for a big step up in responsibility, and others), this is one going the other way. Greg Duffy was an executive at Dropcam before its acquisition by Google, and is now heading to Apple. This week’s Beyond Devices Podcast (which I host with Aaron Miller) covers this recent spate of departures from Apple and whether it signifies anything. This hire is a good reminder that at a company with 116,000 employees as of the most recent 10-K, there will always be people coming and going, and we shouldn’t read too much into individual moves unless there’s clear evidence that the reasons behind the departures are significant for the company.
via The Information (more on Techmeme)
Apple delivers best experience in every category, research says – CNET (Jan 19, 2017)
For all the recent brouhaha about Apple’s commitment to pro users, and allegations that the company has somehow lost its knack for creating innovative, compelling products that “just work”, it’s always good to see something of a reality check. The survey covered in this opinion piece (results in PDF here and a somewhat vague explanation of the survey here) has Apple placing top in every category in which it competes: smartphones, laptops, tablets, and online music services. This is the kind of stuff Tim Cook loves to cite on earnings calls, because it’s the best possible validation that Apple is doing its job well. For all the criticisms from specific groups, whether that’s creative professionals or their would-be spokespeople in the media, it’s this kind of broad-based success among regular people that Apple has always been committed to, and which I suspect is its north star today. This sort of brand engagement and loyalty is the key driver of sales, profits, and growth, and I would expect Apple to continue to try to create products that generate this kind of broad-based brand value and loyalty.
via Apple delivers best experience in every category, research says – CNET