Narrative: Apple is Doomed
Each narrative page (like this) has a page describing and evaluating the narrative, followed by all the posts on the site tagged with that narrative. Scroll down beyond the introduction to see the posts.
★ Apple is Developing a Dedicated AI Chip (May 26, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
Apple Watch Tops Heart Rate and Calorie Measurement Rankings in Stanford Study (May 25, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
iPhones and Samsung Galaxy Models Lead US Smartphone Satisfaction Rankings (May 24, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
Apple Launches Website for Android Switchers (May 22, 2017)
A little under two years ago, Apple launched its first Android app, “Move to iOS”, which was designed to help Android users make the switch to an iPhone. Now, Apple has a new section of its website up which is designed explicitly to help (and help convince) Android users switch to the iPhone. Given that almost every buyer of an iPhone in mature markets is going to be an existing smartphone owner, the two key drivers of iPhone sales in those markets are switching from Android and upgrading from earlier iPhones, and both have been a consistent theme on recent Apple earnings calls. So targeting that audience of Android switchers specifically makes perfect sense. The site focuses on a few aspects of buying and owning an iPhone: ease of use, ease of switching, camera quality, speed, privacy and security, iMessage extensions, support from Apple people, and environmental responsibility. Out of all the possible things Apple could emphasize, that’s an interesting list – design, for example, isn’t one of them, though the word appears in other contexts three times on the site, and all the things highlighted here are functional rather than aesthetic. In fact, other than one oblique shot of an iPhone at the top, there isn’t a single full shot of an iPhone or any shot with the screen on until you get to the “buy” section at the bottom. Given how central the design message and product shots have traditionally been to Apple promotional material, that’s an interesting departure and likely reflects research on why people switch from Android. It’s also worth checking out a set of five short videos Apple has made to go along with the site.
via Apple
92% of US iPhone Users Plan to Buy Another (May 19, 2017)
We’ve seen some of these stats before, and they bounce around a little from survey to survey, but it’s always good as a reminder of just what makes the iPhone installed base so valuable: the combination of very high loyalty to the platform and the ability to sell a variety of other devices and services to iPhone users. This Morgan Stanley survey released this week says that 92% of current iPhone owners plan to stick with the iPhone when they buy their next smartphone, among the highest levels MS has seen, while Samsung comes second at 77% and other Android vendors score considerably lower. That means that even if smartphone upgrade cycles are lengthening, nearly all of the 100 million or so US iPhone users will eventually buy another, many of them likely this fall with what’s expected to be a big upgrade. With iPhones roughly two thirds of Apple revenue, that’s already tremendously important to its future prospects, but the other key part of this is that those iPhone buyers are likely to buy apps and content from the App and iTunes stores, subscribe to Apple Music, iCloud storage, and so on, and also buy other Apple devices like Watches, iPads and Macs. One of the challenges Apple faces, conversely, is that this loyalty rate isn’t as high in every country, with China one notable exception. Though I’ve only seen one survey referenced on this topic, and I’n not convinced the absolute numbers are right, it certainly seems to be the case that iPhone loyalty has been lower in China recently, with at least some iPhone owners shifting down to a cheaper Android phone from rising stars Oppo and Vivo. If Apple can turn that trend around with this fall’s phones, of course, that could lead to a massive rebound in growth in China.
via CNET
Apple Devices Added to HP’s Enterprise Device-as-a-Service Offering (May 5, 2017)
Apple has done a deal with HP to allow the latter to include its devices in its enterprise device-as-a-service offering for enterprises. This is the latest in a string of deals between Apple and various enterprise-centric partners over recent years – a sign that the enterprise is an increasingly important source of growth for Apple as the consumer market reaches saturation for smartphones and upgrade cycles lengthen. HP will be a channel for all Apple devices, but the two companies are also working together to create some guidelines for various industries in deploying those devices and making the most of them in various applications. Apple’s strategy for the enterprise continues to be mainly leveraging these various third party channels rather than growing its own substantial business sales force, which is smart given Apple’s expertise (and the gaps in it).
via HP
Counterpoint Says Apple has 80% Share of Premium Smartphones in China Despite Overall Fall (May 4, 2017)
Counterpoint, which I’ve referenced previously here as a solid source on smartphone market share and so on, especially in Asian markets, has an update on Q1 smartphone performance in China. The headline is that Apple, Xiaomi, and especially Samsung saw their shipments drop significantly year on year, while local companies Oppo, Vivo, and Huawei did better, in a market that grew just 4% year on year. The Apple drop is worth noting because China performance has been a major talking point on its recent earnings calls (including this week) and there are lots of explanations flying around about why it’s struggling there. I linked to this piece a while back, and Ben Thompson had an interesting piece this week on Stratechery about the role WeChat plays in China and how that impacts Apple. But it’s worth noting the details on the premium market in China in this Counterpoint post. It argues that Apple’s performance in China (as elsewhere) is highly cyclical, but that it consistently takes 80% of the $600+ market. In other words, Apple’s share remains very strong in the segment where it competes, but much of the activity in China is at lower levels where Apple doesn’t compete. In that sense, there’s nothing new here, and the growth of the sub-premium segments is to be expected in a maturing market that’s reaching lower income tiers of the population. But if the premium segment is actually shrinking in real terms rather than just relative terms, that’s more problematic because it would indicate consumers who could afford iPhones are nonetheless choosing to buy the cheaper alternatives. So far, I’ve seen little evidence of that, but it’s worth watching future numbers from Counterpoint and elsewhere to see if that pattern starts to emerge. For now, I’m still more inclined to read what’s happening in China as part of a cycle which is already starting to correct and should do so more meaningfully later this year.
via Counterpoint
★ Apple Reports Continued Revenue Growth, Slight Dip in iPhone, Strong Services (May 2, 2017)
Apple’s results for calendar Q1 (its fiscal Q2) were out today, and they largely continued the trends from the December quarter. Revenue growth continued and actually accelerated despite the lack of the extra week which made last quarter’s numbers slightly harder to parse, but the connection between iPhone growth and revenue growth was broken as iPhone shipments dipped slightly (though a change in inventory patterns from last year eliminates some of the dip). Notably, Tim Cook said Apple is starting to see a pause in iPhone buying ahead of a big anticipated upgrade this Fall, which is bad news in the short term but potentially feeds the super-cycle narrative that’s become so popular lately if Apple is able to deliver. Other things worth noting: continued rapid iPad declines, though entirely in the Mini size (revenues from the rest of the lineup grew); strong Apple Watch sales, up nearly double year on year (likely around 3.2-3.5m), with total wearables (Watch, AirPods, and Beats sales) likely around $6 billion for the last four quarters combined. Services continues to be the strongest growth driver by far, up 18% for the second straight quarter driven by 40% App Store growth and likely strong Apple Music revenue growth too. Overall, this is a solid quarter for Apple, with nothing out of the ordinary or too unexpected – all the existing trends are ticking over nicely, with the iPhone roughly flat (up slightly on revenue, down slightly on shipments), and some of the growth drivers delivering well, while the iPad and China continue to be a drag. Next quarter’s guidance is going to be fascinating because it will have to address the issue of what new devices will launch, when, and at what prices without explicitly mentioning any of that!
via Apple (as usual, I live tweeted earnings with tons of charts which you can see in this thread, and I’ll have my earnings deck on Apple up for Jackdaw Research Quarterly Decks Service subscribers in the next little while)
Apple Watch Loses Google Maps, Amazon, eBay Apps (May 1, 2017)
This piece does a good job digging up the news that several iPhone apps from high-profile names have quietly ditched their Apple Watch companion apps. I’m seeing some spin this as a sign that the Apple Watch isn’t working for people, but the reality is that we’re seeing two rather different things at play here. Firstly, apps on the Apple Watch were one of the big misjudgments on Apple’s part: as a group, they really haven’t taken off, not least because in their first couple of iterations they were painfully slow to use. Performance of apps has improved markedly in watchOS 3 and on the Series 2 hardware, but that leaves us with problem number two: many of the apps launched for the Watch simply don’t provide enough utility either on a standalone basis or as alternatives to the iOS versions to be worthwhile. And what we’re seeing now is some of those failed experiments going by the wayside.
We’re still figuring out what works and what doesn’t on the Watch, although a glance at the official App Store for the Watch gives you some idea of what Apple thinks: health and fitness apps dominate the first screen, followed by games, news, sports, and finally utilities. Apple obviously has its own play for navigation, which works particularly well for walking directions, and the Amazon and eBay apps were always a bit of a stretch. The eBay app is a great example of a use case that doesn’t actually need its own app but can work perfectly fine with interactive notifications or a widget on the iPhone. So we’re likely to continue to see apps come and go from the Watch, not least because developers now have many possible areas of investment around iOS apps, including watchOS, tvOS, iPad support, support for the unique hardware features on the iPad Pro line, and so on. As such, some are likely very wise to prioritize other features and platforms over the Apple Watch, while others will do well putting their investment on people’s wrists.
via Apple Insider
Apple’s AirPods Have a 98% Customer Satisfaction Rating (May 1, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.