Narrative: Maturing Smartphone Market
Each narrative page (like this) has a page describing and evaluating the narrative, followed by all the posts on the site tagged with that narrative. Scroll down beyond the introduction to see the posts.
This is the Samsung Galaxy S8, launching March 29 – VentureBeat (Jan 26, 2017)
Evan Blass, who used to publish leaks anonymously under the pseudonym Evleaks and has a great track record of accurate reporting, claims these are pictures of the forthcoming Samsung Galaxy S8. The main changes are a full screen front, with the fingerprint sensor moved to the back, while charging switches from micro USB to USB-C, and Samsung retains the headphone jack. The smaller bezel approach has been widely rumored for the next iPhone this fall, and I think what we’re seeing here to some extent is the same rush into smartwatches in the year or two before the Apple Watch emerged, driven by rumors of where Apple was going. In the smartwatch category, we saw a variety of failed attempts to create something compelling only for the Apple Watch to dominate the market when it launched, and you always have to wonder with this pre-emptive following whether competitors will really be able to crack the concept in a way that’s as compelling as whatever Apple releases. Xiaomi already has an essentially bezel-less phone, LG is reported to be moving in that direction, and now Samsung supposedly is too. It’ll be very interesting to see how this space looks at the end of the year once all these phones (including a new iPhone) are on the market.
via VentureBeat
Can Huawei Catch Apple and Samsung? – Fortune (Jan 25, 2017)
This piece somewhat acts as if Huawei came out of nowhere into the number 3 spot behind Samsung and Apple in the global smartphone market, and while it’s risen rapidly to the top in individual markets, its global rise has been happening for much longer. It’s been the number three for the last six quarters (likely seven once Q4 2016 is reported on), and has been in the top ten since at least 2011. It may well have crept up on US observers, many of whom don’t tend to focus on emerging markets as much as the US and Western Europe, but this story has been underway for quite some time. Huawei is the big global success story among the ranks of Chinese smartphone vendors, most of whom have done well in China and some emerging markets but less well elsewhere. But Huawei still hasn’t cracked the US, where the carriers I’ve spoken to seem to be reluctant to put a relatively unknown Chinese brand on shelves next to premium products from Apple and Samsung. I don’t think Huawei needs to succeed in the US to be successful, and perhaps not even to catch Apple in raw market share terms, but it’s obviously never going to match Apple in terms of profits.
via Fortune
LG posts $224 million loss as ‘weak’ selling G5 smartphone drags it down once again – TechCrunch (Jan 25, 2017)
LG’s smartphone business has been struggling for at least 18 months now – it briefly went into the black in late 2014 and early 2015, but with that exception has been struggling for even longer, posting losses for the last six straight quarters and eleven of the last twenty. Shipments are falling on an annualized basis – they were 55 million in 2016, compared with 59.7 million in 2015 – but the company is also spending more on marketing and its flagship phone isn’t making the waves past versions did. The modular G5 wasn’t well received and LG will abandon that approach in favor of the smaller-bezeled strategy others are pursuing too ahead of an anticipated launch of a similar phone from Apple in the fall. LG’s troubles just reinforce both the overall challenges of doing business in a maturing smartphone market and trying to compete using Android against many others using the same operating system.
via TechCrunch (slide deck with full results available from this page on LG’s website)
HTC’s new flagship phone has AI and a second screen, but no headphone jack – The Verge (Jan 12, 2017)
HTC is the Android smartphone manufacturer I keep expecting to be the first to when the shakeout starts, and it’s hard to avoid the sense that this shakeup is imminent. Its financials make grim reading – rapidly declining revenues and regular losses, with only a brief blip following the launch of the HTC Vive. HTC typifies what’s happened to the big-name Android vendors over recent years with the exception of Samsung – LG, Motorola, Sony, and others have experienced similar challenges. Each has its own attempt to turn things around, and with HTC it seems to be the combination of investment in VR and an expansion of its premium smartphone lineup along with some feature experimentation. We’ve already seen the modular approach come and to some extent go, but second screens seem to be a feature that’s sticking around a bit longer. None of what’s here makes me think it’ll help turn HTC’s fortunes around though.
via HTC’s new flagship phone has AI and a second screen, but no headphone jack – The Verge
The iPhone is gaining ground on Android in the U.S. – Recode (Jan 11, 2017)
Kantar’s data is solid, so these conclusions are reliable, and they suggest a bifurcation in iPhone market share between the US and China. It’s rising in the former, and falling in the latter, which is actually to be expected. The iPhone’s share of the market has generally fallen over time in most markets as they expand and more new buyers at the lower end of the market buy cheaper phones. But as markets mature and begin to saturate, there’s potential for the iPhone to gain share, because share is driven by switching and not by new low end users coming into the market, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now in the US. The key for iPhone sales growth (not share growth, which is not itself important to Apple) going forward is to drive switching behavior, hence Tim Cook’s frequent references to record Android switching rates on earnings calls.
via The iPhone is gaining ground on Android in the U.S. – Recode
The Next Big Thing in Smartphones? The Software – WSJ (Jan 11, 2017)
The foundation of the claims made in this piece – the idea that smartphone growth is slowing driven by saturation and longer upgrade cycles – is absolutely accurate, the headline feels off. Software has always been a critical component of smartphones, so there’s nothing new there. And hardware continues to be extremely important too – see the iPhone 7’s dual cameras and the functionality they’ll support today and tomorrow, or conversely the Note7 recall. So the headline and thrust of the article is overblown, but there’s still some truth here, in that the focus of software innovation in smartphones is changing, and hardware is mature enough that the innovation is happening at the edges, not in huge leaps forward in basic hardware performance.
via The Next Big Thing in Smartphones? The Software – WSJ
T-Mobile Delivers Strong Customer Growth Once Again | T-Mobile (Jan 5, 2017)
The headline here is strong growth, though compared to last year’s results there aren’t huge differences. Total branded net adds were actually down slightly, largely because of lower mobile broadband (tablet) net adds, while wholesale adds were up slightly (these may both have been caused by a shift of subscribers from retail to wholesale last quarter in connection with a Walmart deal), and overall net adds were up slightly too. As the traditional phone market slows down, it’s going to be tougher for T-Mobile to keep driving growth in net adds, and it doesn’t yet seem to have cracked new categories beyond phones, which continues to be my main concern about its longer term prospects.