Narrative: Tech Disrupts Transportation
Each narrative page (like this) has a page describing and evaluating the narrative, followed by all the posts on the site tagged with that narrative. Scroll down beyond the introduction to see the posts.
Tesla Takes Risk by Moving Straight to Final Assembly Line Tooling for Model 3 (Apr 24, 2017)
I’m on record as being very skeptical that Tesla can achieve its production targets for the Model 3, given both its patchy track record on meeting such targets in the past and the massive ramp the Model 3 production schedule entails. This report from Reuters suggests that Tesla is banking in part on an unusual strategy for manufacturing, under which it will move straight to ordering and installing the final assembly line tooling, rather than testing the manufacturing process with “soft tooling”, which is easier and cheaper to replace if something’s not working. That skips a stage in the production ramp, which should accelerate things, but will only work if Tesla’s computer modeling is effective in helping it get the tools order right first time. So it’s definitely a gamble, and one which could either pay off in a big way and allow Tesla to get to its target production more quickly, or actually delay production or lead to defects in the cars. Even with this approach to manufacturing, it’s still not clear to me that Tesla can accelerate its output fast enough to meet its targets. So while there’s some upside in that it may get somewhat closer to meeting its goals, the downside is potentially much bigger if things go wrong. What’s crazy here, of course, is that all these challenging deadlines are entirely self-imposed – it’s Tesla that insists on promising so much and then underdelivering.
via Reuters
Apple Driver Training for Autonomous Vehicles Detailed in Documents (Apr 21, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
Tesla Recalls 53,000 Cars Built in 2016 Over Parking Brake Issue (Apr 20, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
Uber Struggles to Retain Drivers, Develops Plans to Do Better (Apr 20, 2017)
The Information has quite a bit of both data on Uber’s driver retention rates and on its efforts to do better in keeping drivers. The headline I’ve seen shared is that it retains just 4% of drivers, but that’s a bit misleading because it’s based on those that apply to be drivers, only 20% of which make it through that process. The more meaningful retention rate is the 25% of those who drive at least once for Uber who are still driving for it a year later. That’s still low, but far better than 4%. Still, Uber is sometimes compared to an early stage SaaS company, many of which exhibit the same low margins and high growth rates as Uber, and which generally become profitable over time as recurring revenue from earlier cohorts of customers offsets customer acquisition costs. Uber’s problem with such low retention rates is that it continually has to spend massive amounts to attract and retain drivers even as its business matures. In addition, better retaining those drivers going forward ultimately means paying them more, and if it’s also to reduce its subsidies for rides that’s going to mean large price increases, which in turn may well affect demand unless it’s squeezed out all its competitors by that stage, which seems unlikely. As such, even though VCs commonly scoff at the notion that Uber should worry about its lack of profits, I do think there are some legitimate concerns over its current finances.
via The Information
Largest LIDAR Supplier Announces Much Cheaper, Smaller, Product to Come Next Year (Apr 19, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
Baidu Changes Strategy for Autonomous Driving, Creating Open Platform (Apr 19, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
Autonomous Driving Technology is Being Trained on Simulators Including Video Games (Apr 17, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
NYC Taxi Regulator Mulling Forcing Uber to Add Tipping Option in its App (Apr 17, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.
Uber Shares Partial, Flattering Financial Data for 2016 with Bloomberg (Apr 14, 2017)
Uber’s financial results frequently leak through various online publications, and this year it seems to have decided to shortcut the process and speak directly to Bloomberg, which of course also gives it the opportunity to present the most flattering version of the numbers along with commentary. The highlights are that Uber grew revenues significantly year on year, but losses also grew. Uber emphasized that revenue growth outpaced growth in losses, but of course what you really want is for revenue growth to outpace cost growth, because that’s how you eventually become profitable, but that isn’t happening yet. Uber’s revenue growth was also helped by the different accounting treatment of UberPool rides (for which Uber records the full revenue as net revenue) versus other rides (for which it only reports its cut) which has the effect of making losses seem smaller in comparison to revenues, but is really just financial jiggery pokery. The headline financials shared with Bloomberg also exclude both the Chinese business, which was hugely loss-making for Uber, and various other items including car purchases (presumably as part of its autonomous technology testing operation). So these really are a pretty sanitized set of results, which nonetheless show significant and even growing losses.
via Bloomberg
Elon Musk Tweets About Future Tesla Products Including Semi and Pickup Trucks and a Convertible (Apr 13, 2017)
This content requires a subscription to Tech Narratives. Subscribe now by clicking on this link, or read more about subscriptions here.