Written: January 24, 2017
This narrative was the subject of the weekly narrative deep-dive video on March 30, 2017. You can see the video here on YouTube, and it’s also embedded below.
The last couple of years have seen a rise in claims that the mobile app model which has defined the modern smartphone era that began in 2007/8 is somehow on the way out. The specifics of the narrative vary from one version of the story to another – some posit that the web will win out, while others suggest that bots, messaging apps, or some other model is going to win out instead.
The reality is that the app model has never been bigger or in better health than today – figures for 2016 show massive growth over 2015 in both apps downloaded and the associated revenue, and neither number shows any sign of slowing down. The reality is that many of those pushing the death of apps story have an agenda of some kind – some, like Facebook and Microsoft – missed out on becoming app platforms and so wish to set themselves up as the creators of what’s next, such as bots. Others see apps as a threat to their business model, and would prefer to see the web regain the upper hand – see Google. Still others are merely looking for reasons why Apple’s dominance of the app model in revenue terms might come to an end.
The true picture is more complex – apps certainly aren’t dying, but they are evolving. Apps are becoming more sophisticated things – think back to the launch of the App Store in 2008, when the entire functionality of the app was contained behind the little rounded rectangle. Today, iOS apps alone have interactive notifications; widgets in the notification shade; Quick Actions enabled through 3D Touch; Siri, Maps, and iMessage extensions; share sheets and much more besides. Apps are already infinitely richer than they were, but it’s still the app model that dominates. Even bots have to live somewhere, and they typically do so within apps, whether that’s Facebook Messenger, Google’s Allo, or Skype. Games in particular are virtually immune to replacement with anything but more apps – the business models around in-app purchases which now dominate are so integral to the app model that it’s hard to see how they could be replaced.
Apps will, of course, continue to evolve, appearing on new devices like televisions and TV boxes, wearables, and more; increasing their ability to interact with other apps, with automation, and with real world objects like smart home gear; and taking advantage of new user inputs and outputs as well as increasingly sophisticated sensors. But apps certainly aren’t going to die anytime soon. Yes, bots may replace some apps for some specific tasks, but they can never replace all the things apps do for us today (and of course will live within apps even where they do). Voice interactions will similarly mostly give us just another way to interact with the same services for which we use apps when voice isn’t an appropriate or effective medium. Apps, meanwhile, are here to stay, and will likely continue to grow in both downloads and revenues for quite some time to come.